ENTREPRENEURIAL DENSITY AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: PANEL EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This paper estimates the association between entrepreneurial density and regional output per capita using a balanced panel of 14 Uzbek regions over 2015–2025 (154 observations). Fixed-effects estimates place the elasticity at 0.245–0.284 and are significant at the 1 per cent level. The between-region relationship is concave, with the marginal effect declining from 1.91 to 1.04 across the observed range, whereas the within-region relationship is convex; a variance decomposition shows that 96 per cent of the variation in output per capita is between regions. The share of small business in regional employment is strongly negatively associated with output per capita (r = −0.926), which cautions against its use as a development target.