Abstract
Water stress in transboundary irrigated basins is usually discussed in terms of growing demand, yet the share of available flow that is withdrawn can rise sharply even when withdrawals stay constant. This study quantifies that mechanism for the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia, using a harmonised annual dataset for 2000–2025 that combines basin runoff, Toktogul reservoir inflow and outflow, total withdrawals and climatic drivers.
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